2013年2月28日 星期四

Romantic is what we all need, songs to romantic ( 愛與羅曼地克是我們都追求 )

All, everything that I understand, I understand only because I love.
-- Leo Tolstoy


I have learned not to worry about love;
But to honor its coming with all my heart.
-- Alice Walker 


In the arithmetic of love, one plus one equals everything, and two minus one equals nothing.
-- Mignon McLaughlin 


My love for you is a journey;
Starting at forever,
And ending at never.
-- Anonymous 


Once in awhile, right in the middle of an ordinary life, love gives us a fairy tale.
-- Author Unknown


Paradise is always where love dwells.
-- Jean Paul F. Richter


















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2013年2月25日 星期一

Google 與 Amazon、Apple、Yahoo、eBay 線上購物業務競爭將在 2013 大幅上升 ( 2013 Google PLA and Online shopping will have a strong growth )

Google 跨足經營線上購物,威脅 Amazon 霸主地位
Google PLA will become a killer web apps to Online retail

網路四大巨人Google、Apple、Facebook、Amazon為了爭奪市占相互角力,其中又以Google和 Amazon 之間的競逐最為人注意,倒不是因為兩家公司都大動作投入平板市場,而是Google 已經悄悄進軍 Amazon 的核心業務:線上購物。

產品陳列廣告(PLA)奏功

Google去年9月將美國地區的產品搜尋服務 Product Search,改成全面付費廣告Google Shopping,先前的產品搜尋功能採免費制,不僅容易出現誤導訊息且充斥垃圾廣告,Google 看準握有大筆預算的廣告商捨得花錢宣傳進而改變作法。

根據2012年第4季財報,這項服務已經發揮效用,助單季廣告營收一舉衝高至 13億美元,且當季的搜尋點擊率中,付費陳列產品就佔了約28%。
Google的成功對Amazon相當不利,Amazon尚未投入資金使用 Google的產品陳列服務,產品只會出現在非贊助的自然搜尋結果,換句話說,商品很難有機會露臉。

Google提供完整購物服務
Google Shopping page may take over as Online front page

根據數位廣告公司Marin Software調查,公司的委託廣告商過去花在Google平台上的廣告費為40億美元,但自從全面收費制上路後,廣告主花在Google Shopping的商品陳列費用竟然多了600%。

Marin Software發現,Google提高了搜尋結果上付費產品的能見度,成果也反映在產品的點擊率,尤其在假期,陳列廣告點閱率較去年成長210%,曝光率提高60%,因此廣告商都相當樂於付費。

當初Google宣布改收費制時,評論人士和競爭對手都不看好,認為消費者搜尋的客觀性會受影響,但Google在這方面做了相當多的努力,反而使消費者更容易接受贊助商品陳列。廣告商也是如此,過往業者不需花一毛錢就能登上搜尋結果,因此不會在乎產品陳列效果如何,花了錢後反而關心廣告的呈現,也更用心處理。

Google正盡其所能讓廣告商在他們的平台上行銷產品,那麼這對Amazon有何影響?網路購物者習慣到Google或Amazon找尋商品資訊,為了保住搜尋市占,Google必須吸引使用者,甚至可能把自家網站打造成一塊不僅可以搜尋也能購物的新天地。

外界猜測,Google未來可能包下「搜尋」和「結帳」程序,將剩下的處理存、出貨交給零售商,合作結成完整的電子零售網,Google執行長佩吉(Larry Page)不願表明是否會發展完整結帳服務,但未來將持續改善及簡化購物服務,提供使用者更好的體驗。

目前看來,Amazon產品目前無法在Google網站陳列上取得優勢,且面臨Google線上商務不斷壯大,Amazon不再是消費者線上購物的優先選擇,線上零售龍頭的地位正備受威脅。


Google、Facebook、Apple 和 Amazon 超級大混戰:群雄割據

Adobe: Google PLA Spend Nearly The Size Of Yahoo-Bing Spend (US)
四個帝國 Google、Apple、Facebook 和 Amazon 主導世界市場,偏居一角的微軟幾乎沒有插手的餘地,過去的手機大廠 Nokia 勉強保住一座小島,黑莓機母公司 RIM 更慘,只有一塊礁石!

這場戰役的獲勝關鍵在於:誰能對網路消費市場擁有最大影響力、掌握整個消費過程的每個步驟,並且把利潤都收進自己的口袋。

Apple、Google 大戰,已經開始很久了

要從 Google 手上分走搜尋引擎這塊大餅當然不容易,但其他大咖會非常樂意在其他部分試試看,而 Google 最大的威脅毫無疑問會是 Apple。
Google's Android Crushes Apple's iOS In Smartphone

簡單來說,最主要的戰場就是 AppleiOS 系統,以及 Google 的 Android 系統爭霸戰。根據市調公司 IDC 的調查,2012 年 Android 系統手機的出貨量占了第三季智慧型手機銷售量的四分之三。

Google 的態度對 Apple 來說簡直就是宣戰。Android 推出時 Jobs 大怒,揚言要不計一切代價搞垮 Android;Apple 推出的 Siri 就是攻擊的一部份。而 Apple 今年決定 iOS 系統不再採用 Google Map 也是為了可以擺脫 Google。

網購戰場的武器還在不斷升級

在上面那張割據圖中,跨海則有另一個王國:微軟,和他最順從、但是絕望的手下 Nokia 和新的手機操作系統。微軟打造了新的 Surface  平板電腦,為自己創造一個全新的平台,急著找回過去的榮景。

在行動裝置上,Facebook 目前還保持中立,但在網路購物市場這場大戰裡,它的角色就不只是旁觀者而已了,要打贏這場仗代表他要從 Amazon 嘴裡搶肉吃。

在美國推出的 Facebook gifts,可以挖出各種使用者的資訊、他們的品味和交友關係,在生日等時機鼓勵他們互相送禮。為了大力推動這項服務, Facebook 也推出送禮的配套系統 karma 並且和超過一百間公司合作,包括 Starbucks 和巧克力公司 Lindt。

而 Google 推出的新服務讓消費者可以在一天之內找到並且收到商品,Google 沒有挑戰電子商業巨頭的倉庫戰術,反而轉向貨運公司和零售商;但如果 Google 真的想取代 Amazon 的話,它還是需要後勤支援。

群雄割據戰的關鍵字:搜尋!

現在大家開始漸漸跳過 Google 搜尋直接到 Amazon 消費,估計大約有 30% 的美國網路消費者在 Amazon 找商品。

據說 Facebook 也正設計讓使用者透過社交網路搜尋產品,Zuckerberg 就曾說感謝那些在網路上找朋友或找其他東西的人,讓 Facebook 每天都有十億筆搜尋記錄。

Apple 在迎戰 Google 的同時也準備發動對 Amazon 的奇襲,要爭奪最大數位內容供應商的寶座。在發表 iPod 之後,Apple 藉著iTunes 進攻數位音樂市場,用軟體推銷硬體或者剛好相反,但也成功和 Amazon 分庭抗禮。

電子書市場對雙方來說都是一場硬仗,去年 Amazon 在全美電子書下載量占三分之二,Apple 只有 5%,但是 Apple 靠著給出版商更彈性的講價空間慢慢扭轉市場。但 Amazon 壄在數位音樂市場靠著音樂工具 Cloud Player,想辦法削弱 iTunes 的佔有率。

在影音的部分,兩者都在和從 DVD 出租商轉型成影音串流廠商的 Netflix 角力。

The Rise of Product Listing Ads: 2012 & Beyond

在2012年10月,谷歌成功地轉變谷歌產品搜索在美國的商業模式建立在產品陳列廣告(PLA)。雖然這更優質的購物體驗,面對批評和表揚,當它被宣布2012年5月,廣告商看到了解放軍的活動進行了大量的成功。 In October of 2012, Google successfully transitioned Google Product Search in the US to a commercial model built on Product Listing Ads (PLA). Though this enhanced shopping experience was faced with both criticism and praise when it was announced in May 2012, advertisers have seen PLA campaigns perform with a great deal of success. In fact, by the end of September 2013, over 100,000 retailers had inventory in Google’s new shopping model just in time for the holiday season.


One month ahead of the transition, the impression share of PLAs to standard text ads was 3.9% to 96% respectively. By the end of December, PLAs were receiving 60% more (6.1%) of the total impressions. This rapid growth in impressions share was not only due to more online retailers deploying PLA campaigns, but also the increase in product related searches during the holiday season.

However, the steady increase in click share from 2.1% in January 2012 to 6.6% (210% growth) in December indicates that shoppers are finding these PLAs, rather than standard text ads, to be more relevant to their search queries regardless of seasonality. The enhanced shopping experience and increase in relevancy is further supported by the gradual increase in click-through rate (CTR) from January 2012 through December. As seasonality became more of a factor in Q4, CTR for PLAs surpassed that of standard text ads in November and December.

This trend has far reaching implications as standard text ads cost more per click than PLAs during Q4 2012. For retailers, this means that PLAs are not only cheaper, but they perform far better than standard text ads during the busiest shopping season of the year. Of course, with the increase in PLA adoption by online marketers and increase in clicks by shoppers during the holiday season, the share of spend by PLA campaigns jumped from 0.36% in October to 2.5% (600% growth) in December. In fact, in Q4 alone many retailers allocated as much as 30% of their total spend on Google towards PLAs. This speaks volume to the incremental growth in spend on Google as a result of the Product Search transition. In 2013, online retailers will undoubtedly allocate additional budget towards PLAs, continuing to build on the momentum gained in 2012.

分析

  • Google 的產品陳列廣告服務將使 Online 店面生態改變,Amazon、Yahoo、Apple、eBay 都會受威脅;
  • 以Google 的 search engine、Android、Google mobile apps、Gmail 的普及,Google PLA 結合 Google shopping 和網頁電子支付服務將使 Online 店面生意模式改變;
  • Google PLA、Google shopping 網頁服務及 Google Wallet 將是 Google 未來最大之收入成長;
  • Google 這種間接式 Online shopping 經營方式將受商家喜歡;
  • Google 也極可能因這種間接式 Online shopping 經營方式收購 PayPal;
  • Google 可以提供 Google 雲端平台幫客戶做更精確分析,其他公司如何競爭?
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2013年2月15日 星期五

微軟要小心,依 Google 發展軟體速度,微軟 Windows 未來將面靈 Google 的在企業市場之威脅 ( Microsoft needs to be careful, Google start to threat Microsoft from 2013 in enterprise business )

Could Android replace Windows?

這表明另一個操作系統,填補了所缺的Windows聽起來很瘋狂,但肯定是不會發生在不久的將來,桌面Linux仍然沒有管理。什麼的更長遠,但? Android是出奇地好,放在微軟巨獸的衣缽。你不相信我嗎?請繼續閱讀,看看這是為什麼。Suggesting that another operating system could fill the shoes of Windows sounds crazy, it certainly isn’t going to happen in the near future, desktop Linux still hasn’t managed it. What about the much longer term though? Android is surprisingly well-placed to take on the mantle of the Redmond behemoth. Don’t believe me? Keep reading to see why.

更換桌面操作系統的移動操作系統的想法是荒唐可笑的,只不過幾年前。不過,微軟已經牢牢地釘住它的顏色與Windows 8在桅杆上。 ,像其他人一樣,看到的未來是移動,並已開始變形的世界的主食操作系統的到移動。新的Windows 8觸摸輸入UI界面,有一個應用程序商店和沙箱中所有的應用程序。這看起來非常像一個移動操作系統。但是,除非你使用的是Windows RT設備,所有的那一接口粘在傳統的桌面界面上方的。The idea of a mobile operating system replacing a desktop operating system would have been ludicrous just a few years ago. However, Microsoft has firmly pinned it colours to the mast with Windows 8. It, like everyone else, sees that the future is mobile, and has started morphing the world’s staple operating system into something more mobile-friendly. The new tiled interface of Windows 8 is made for touch input, has an app store and sandboxes all of its apps. That looks pretty much like a mobile OS to me. However, unless you’re using a Windows RT device, all of that touch interface is glued on top of the traditional desktop interface.

同時,谷歌移動向桌面與 Chrome OS 和 Android 終於起飛的平板電腦作業系統。在所有的移動操作系統,Android 是最類似於 Windows 的。它有一個很容易訪問的文件系統(不同的iOS 或 Windows Phone)。它作為最方便的開發環境,為原始設備製造商和最友善的,也就是說,它是免費的。此外,Android是以往任何時候都更廣泛的設備上出現,從 Galaxy 相機,智能電視和 Ouya 遊戲機。 Meanwhile, Google is moving toward the desktop with Chrome OS, and Android is finally taking off as a tablet operating system. Of all the mobile operating systems, Android is the most Windows-like. It has an easily accessible file system (unlike iOS or Windows Phone). It as the most accessible development environment, and the most friendly terms for OEMs, i.e. it’s free of cost. Furthermore, Android is appearing on an ever wider range of devices, from the Galaxy Camera, to Smart TVs and the Ouya gaming console.

具有諷刺意味的是,對於微軟來說​​,Android是更類似於Windows的比Windows Phone。可以看到更多的相似性比消費端的OEM和開發人員的角度,雖然。任何OEM可以建立不同的iOS,Android設備,而Windows Phone需要特許權使用費。它的便宜,進入開發Android應用程序,它是Android的問題,由於不同硬件的風景 - 就像PC世界一樣難以診斷。此外,Android是比其他移動平台更加低廉。 iOS設備已經超出了很多人的經濟承受能力,同時也有一些價格合理的Windows Phone手機,他們是在少數人的範圍。Ironically, for Microsoft, Android is more Windows-like than Windows Phone. The similarities can be seen more from the OEM and developer side than the consumer side, though. Any OEM can build an Android device, unlike iOS, and Windows Phone requires a royalty. It’s cheaper to get into developing Android apps and it’s just as hard to diagnose problems in Android due to the heterogeneous hardware landscape – just like the PC world. Also, Android is much more affordable than other mobile platforms. iOS devices are beyond the financial reach of many people and while there are some reasonably priced Windows Phone handsets, they are in the minority of the range.

更重要的是,Android 已經使原始設備製造商的實驗與創新的硬件格式。請記住,華碩Transformer和摩托羅拉Atrix筆記本電腦碼頭長在當前作物的Windows 8 可換 Ultrabooks。 What’s more, Android has enabled OEMs to experiment with innovative hardware formats. Remember that the Asus Transformer and Motorola Atrix laptop dock were available long before the current crop of Windows 8 convertible Ultrabooks.

Sales figures show that tablets are becoming ever more popular with some analysts suggesting tablets will overtake PC sales in the near future. This makes sense, as someone who exclusively used Linux for a long time then transferred back to Windows for work reasons, I know just how complicated Windows actually is. To do anything more than web browsing, Windows is an overwhelming maze of menus and dialogues, it’s certainly no easier to use than desktop Linux. Whenever I see my non-tech literate friends and family proudly showing off their new Windows laptop, I cringe when I think of all the things that are going to go wrong for them.

The comparatively simplified and controlled user interface that we find on all mobile devices, including Android, is far more suitable to the majority of consumers who are not tech-literate and have little inclination to learn. For the record, I disagree with such attitudes, it’s as irresponsible as owning a car and not understanding how it works, but that’s just me, I know most people will never subscribe to that point of view.

The future of Windows

一直在支持的Windows的因素是慣性。 Windows是事實上的操作系統在世界各地。然而,微軟的方式讓每個人都已經進入觸摸界面(正式名稱為“Metro”)接口。不僅具有一定的市場反應,這是不冷不熱,但還沒有得到證明背後的驅動器​​,由數量缺乏觸摸屏的筆記本電腦,許多原始設備製造商。The factor that has always been in favor of Windows is inertia. Windows is the de facto operating system across the world. However, Microsoft’s way of getting everybody into a touch interface has been with the tiled (formally known as ‘Metro’) interface. Not only has the market reaction to this been lukewarm, but many OEMs have not gotten behind the drive, as evidenced by the number of laptops that lack touchscreens.

Disclosure, I have been using and preferring Windows 8 (to 7) since its release preview.

討厭採用 Win 8 界面,結合中異軍突起的普及,很多人開始考慮轉向 Android 平板電腦與鍵盤作為替代品碼頭到 Windows Ultrabooks,尤其是當大多數 Ultrabooks 成本略微超過Android平板電腦和鍵盤的組合。 Reluctance to adopt the tiled interface, combined with the meteoric rise in popularity could start many people thinking about turning to Android tablets with keyboard docks as alternatives to Windows Ultrabooks, especially when most Ultrabooks cost marginally more than Android tablet and keyboard combinations.

另一大優勢,Android 目前的應用程序對 Windows 8 和 Windows RT。除非應用程序目錄為Windows RT 量爆炸,Android 將在未來一年或兩年的人可能需要為個人和工作用途的應用程序,仍然具有很大的優勢。The other advantage that Android currently has over Windows 8 and Windows RT is that of apps. Unless the app catalogue volume for Windows RT explodes over the next year or two, Android will still offer a great advantage for apps that people may need for personal and work uses.

Microsoft has been touting the vision that using Windows 8 and Windows Phone 8 will offer the best integrated experience between ‘PC’ and phone. However, as someone who regularly uses Windows 8 and Windows Phone 8, I have yet to see any meaningful integration. The most effective integration I’ve experienced is SkyDrive and OneNote – both of which are available for Android.

Moreover, look at the user interface of Android phones and tablets. There is far more similarity between the two, and most apps will run on phones and tablets. Meanwhile, the difference with Windows 8, Windows RT and Windows Phone gets tricky to explain to the non-techies in our lives.

On the entertainment side, Microsoft’s Xbox music matching service is an appalling mess, whereas Google Music has been up and running for a long time. Its maturity has made it possible third party developers to create Google Music clients on Windows 8/RT and Windows Phone.

Problems with this vision

有明顯好Android的原因,採取從Windows。例如,我會覺得更安全的建議Android平板電腦,我的家庭成員,而不是一個完全成熟的Windows筆記本電腦。然而,總有一些將是桌面級的應用,人們需要為他們的工作,如視頻或圖像編輯等. There are clearly good reasons for Android to take over from Windows. For example, I’d feel much safer recommending an Android tablet to members of my family than a full blown Windows laptop. However, there are always going to be desktop class applications that people need for their work, such as video or image editing, etc.

Furthermore, Microsoft’s commitment to the tiled touch interface will mean that everyone who owns a home computer will probably end up using, and getting used to Windows 8. Inertia wins again.

Also, the Windows 8 and Windows Phone shared kernel could yet provide a virtuous circle for developers to create apps and games that will run on mobile and on desktops. Even so, Microsoft are not pretending Windows Phone will go any further than third place in the smartphone wars.

Ultimately, waiting for Android to take over from Windows is wishful thinking, but there are an increasing number of individual cases where doing so actually makes a lot of sense.

Xyologic: Android Will Overtake Apple In Monthly Downloads In June 2012

應用程序的世界越來越大,因此它似乎是恰當的另一家公司是跳躍在嘗試做這一切的感覺。 ,Xyologic 在這方面,新的球員之一,現在國際研究步驟進一步指出:它是生產月度數據為29個不同的市場,包括 Android 設備,iPhone,iPad和WP7應用程序下載 - 可以說是給它一些更全面的覆蓋的產品是什麼在應用程序。為移動應用程序市場的數字揭示了一些有趣的趨勢。 The world of apps is only getting bigger, so it seems fitting that another company is jumping in to try to make sense of it all. One of the newer players in this area, Xyologic, is now taking its international research one step further: it is producing monthly numbers for 29 different markets, covering Android, iPhone, iPad and WP7 app downloads — arguably giving it some of the more comprehensive coverage of what’s selling in apps today. The numbers reveal some interesting trends for the mobile app market.

– 在8月份,iPhone和iPod贏得了勝利,當它來到用戶的平均下載量,在8.7應用程序。總體而言,有超過1.2億的應用程序下載到iPhone和iPod touch設備,Xyologic估計,有源器件的數量分別為140萬。 In August, the iPhone and iPod won the day when it came to average downloads per user, at 8.7 apps. Overall, there were more than 1.2 billion apps downloaded to iPhone and iPod touch devices, and Xyologic estimates that the number of active devices were 140 million.

– 趨勢表明,蘋果公司(NSDQ:AAPL)將被Android超越整體從明年開始,每月下載下載,但Xyologic說,這是已經發生的事情在一些國家:捷克共和國,波蘭和葡萄牙。 The trends suggest that Apple (NSDQ: AAPL) will be overtaken by Android overall in terms of downloads starting next year for monthly downloads, but Xyologic says that this is already happening in some countries: the Czech Republic, Poland and Portugal.

– 但也有一些關鍵的數據差距。例如,印度沒有列出的電話號碼。事實證明,印度仍然只有一個測試版的市場。 But there are some key data gaps. For example, India has no numbers listed. It turns out that India still only has a beta version of the Market.

– 在美國,iPhone 4.16億應用程序下載,並在8月份的iPad擁有7千7百萬。然而佔了近一倍的 Android 商店,其中有2.78億次的下載活動。 Xyologic估計,根據目前的趨勢,Android 將趕上與蘋果公司在2012年6月的月平均下載。 Android 將會趕上 iOS 在聚合​​下載2013年5月。這些趨勢表如下。 In the U.S., the iPhone had 416.71 million app downloads, and the iPad had 77 million in the month of August. Together, that accounted for nearly double the activity on the Android store, which had 278.72 million downloads. Xyologic estimates that based on current trends, Android will catch up with Apple by June 2012 in terms of monthly downloads. Android will catch up with iOS in aggregated downloads by May 2013. Tables for these trends are below.

– Windows Phone是仍然落後於應用程序,因為它是在整體市場份額。在許多情況下,看到在其他平台上,在數以十萬計(芬蘭諾基亞自己的國內市場)的數字下載相比,幾乎可以忽略不計分數的數以百計的百萬在其他平台上。在美國,WP市場看到了1.295千萬的下載量近5億 iOS 設備之間。Windows Phone is still as behind in apps as it is in overall marketshare. In many cases, almost a negligible fraction of the downloads seen on the other platforms, with numbers in the tens of thousands (including in Nokia’s own home market of Finland) compared the the hundreds of millions on other platforms. In the U.S. the WP Marketplace saw 12.95 million downloads compared to the nearly 500 million across iOS devices.

– Android和蘋果的應用程序商店在2012年8月有68萬的應用程序。這將是他們的第一個月是脖子和頸部這般接近。There will be 680,000 apps apiece in the Android and Apple app stores by August 2012. That will be the first month that they are neck-and-neck.

Xyologic 的數字打破了付費和免費的應用程序,以及在每個市場不同的平台上出版的應用程序的數量。情況下,它的適用,Xyologic 還提供不同的應用程序發布者產生多少收入從下載的平台上的估計。 (什麼是中國像Android Market的應用程序店面,例如,目前不提供付費的應用程式)。Xyologic’s figures break out paid and free apps, as well as the number of apps getting published on the different platforms in each market. In cases where it’s applicable, Xyologic is also offering estimates on how much revenue different app publishers are generating on platforms from downloads. (What’s left out are app storefronts like the Android Market in China, for example, which currently does not offer paid apps.)

這個項目背後的思考是,中的不和諧的許多應用程序,是在市場上今天,它的努力為開發人員,應用程序店面的運營商,廣告商和其他工作中的應用程序到是能夠得到一個大的圖片什麼是工作作為一個企業。甚至更多的情況下是在一個特定的市場開發工作與他們的應用程序在國外的野心。The thinking behind this project is that amid the cacophony of the many apps that are on the market today, it’s hard for developers, app storefront operators, advertisers and the others working in apps to be able to get a big picture about what is working as a business. That’s even more the case for those developers working in one particular market with ambitions to take their apps abroad.

Xyologic will be offering these analytics for free. As with its competitors, the company generates revenue from bespoke analysis it does on behalf of device makers, carriers, investors, app and game publishers. It also offers a search engine for consumers searching for apps, which is powered by Xyologic’s algorithms.

該公司尚未覆蓋的一件事,然而,這些應用程序商店銷售應用的一個平台以外的正式的店面。例如,中國的 Android 市場,但它的其他應用程序店面,銷售Android應用程序谷歌自己的產品外,還包含有大量。今天,有沒有確實的數據,計算所有的 Android應用程序下載整個市場及其他應用程序店面。所以Xyologic估計,在Android平台上看到 2214萬的下載量在8月通過官方市場,但實際數字可能已經高達8000萬。One thing that the firm is not yet covering, however, are those app stores that are selling apps for a platform outside of the official native storefronts. For example, China has the Android Market, but it also features a number of other app storefronts that are selling Android apps outside of Google’s own offering. Today, there is no hard data counting all those Android app downloads across the Market and other app storefronts. So Xyologic estimates that the Android platform saw 22.14 million downloads in August through the official Market, but that the actual number could have been as high as 80 million.

Gmail users now number 425 Million, becomes most used webmail service
Chromebook with Android will be a trend in future?

此前有消息稱,Chrome 已經成為這個星球上最常用的瀏覽器(3.1億用戶),Gmail 有4.25億的月活躍用戶已經超過了 Hotmail ,根據官方博客。隨著這個數字已經超越了Hotmail 的在歷史上是第一次。我們注意到,早在今年1月,Gmail 的是3.5億,所以一直強勁,穩定的增長。 After the news that Chrome has become the most used browser on the planet (with 310 million users), Gmail has surpassed Hotmail with a total of 425 Million monthly active users, according to the official blog. With that number it has surpassed Hotmail for the first time in history. We noted back in January that Gmail was at 350 Million, so the growth has been strong and steady.

A quote from TechCrunch:

它被用來在美國的45個州的政府機構和66的前100名大學在美國已經跑至谷歌 Gmail。谷歌還宣布,超過500萬的企業現在已經“用了 Gmail” 說,谷歌,包括一些大公司,包括羅氏公司,荷蘭皇家航空公司和其他。It’s being used by government agencies in 45 states and 66 of the top 100 universities in the U.S. have already gone Google. Google also announced that over 5 million businesses have now “gone Google.” This, says Google, includes a number of large companies, including Roche, KLM and others.

The service began in 2004, and it has been growing ever since. Over the years, important new features have been introduced, including Priority Inbox, to help users get a handle on their email stream.

These numbers come from Google itself: comScore on the other hand notes that the number of active Gmail users is much lower:

Google has way less unique visitors and still gives the edge to Hotmail and Yahoo. ComScore’s latest numbers from May have Hotmail at No. 1 with 325 million unique visitors, Yahoo at No. 2 with 298 million users, and Gmail at No. 3 with 289 million users.

However, comScore is a competitor to Google (in the analytics field), and the above stats do  not include smartphone / tablet access or internet cafe access, so the reliability of those numbers is debatable.

Gmail 在短短8年成為世界第一! Congrats to Gmail on becoming no. 1 in just 8 years!

趨勢分析與評論
  • Google Android OS 超越 iOS 後,緊接著就是 Android OS 加上 Gmail、Google drive、Google docs 會追上 Microsoft,雖然追上 Microsoft 時間不會這麼快;
  • Google Android OS 若配上 Chromebook 及 Microsoft web Office 將是台廠最佳產品,符合企業及個人需求。
  • 也就是說企業需求將分割成文書 office 需求及工作應用軟體需求,文書 office 需求只需要 ARM based Android OS 若配上 Chromebook 及 Microsoft web Office 就很夠用。
  • Microsoft 最佳策略應該是先買下所有工作常用之應用軟體公司團隊,否則,一旦ARM based Android OS 若配上 Chromebook 及 Microsoft web Office 流行於市場許多工作常用之應用軟體公司會將工作應用軟體轉成雲端工作應用軟體平台或配上 Chromebook 及 Android OS。
  • 由另一觀點看,既使 Microsoft 已經有 Window 8 及 Surface,但與 Android 及 iOS 比較,太過龐大以致硬體太貴,Smart Phone OS 是以小型、Cost effective 及易使用。
  • 既使微軟 Surface Pro 銷售告捷 128GB版銷售一空,但那只是緩和 PC、NB 將大幅衰退,無法新增市場,Tablet 市場仍大幅被 iPad、Android 及未來 Chromebook with Android Tablet 吃掉。
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2013 年社群、雲端與巨量資料之發展潮流 ( 2013 IT technology trend in big data )

2013年不容忽視的十大科技潮流 Gartner:行動裝置、社群、雲端與巨量資料

未來幾年科技業面臨的主要趨勢是什麼?哪些正在崛起的新勢力絕不容忽視?產業研究機構 Gartner 點名,行動裝置、社群、雲端與巨量資料等將主宰科技業走向。

周二(23日)Gartner分析師 David Cearley 在美國奧蘭多舉行的 SymposIUm/ITxpo 年度科技論壇上,依據未來三年的產業影響力,提出明年必須關注的十項科技趨勢。

面對滿堂科技業人士,Gartner 開宗明義指出,明年企業 IT 部門必須將雲端、社群、行動與資訊謹記在心。

首先入列的是,行動裝置即將進入戰國時代;預計到 2013 年行動電話將取代電腦成為民眾最主要上網裝置,而且 3 年內逾 8 成新銷售手機都將屬於智慧型等級;此外,估計 2015 年前平板佔整體電腦出貨就可增加至 50%,而微軟 Windows 8 將成為僅次於 Android 與 iOS 的第三大作業系統。

與此同時,隨著行動上網躍為主流,Gartner 也估計 HTML5 開發工具將更加普及,而向網路應用靠攏的長期趨勢也無可避免。

另一項要點也是目前正迅速發展的--雲端服務終究會取代電腦成為個人資訊的最佳儲存所;Gartner 強調,IT 產業正走向雲端、社群與行動的整合,其中雲端更扮演著聯繫網的關鍵角色。

而在巨量資料(big data)與分析方面,Gartner 估計今年全球 IT 支出為 3.6 兆美元,明年將超過 3.7 兆美元,其中最主要成長動能將來自巨量資料。

個人雲
Cearley 也不忘解釋,雖然社群不列在十項之列,但事實上它已深入科技的各個層面,整合並發展出新的運用及意涵。

Cearley 列出的 2013年十大策略性科技潮流包括:
  • 行動裝置戰爭
  • 行動應用與HTML5
  • 個人雲
  • 物聯網 (Internet of Things)
  • 混合 IT 與雲端運算
  • 策略性巨量資料
  • 可行動策略
  • 記憶體內運算
  • 整合生態系統
  • 企業應用程式商店
:巨量資料之大數據應用將大幅增加,個人混合雲會開始起來;整合生態系統之雲端運算及策略性巨量資料也將形成。

Big Data Revolution? ( 2013年雲端大數據之發展: 大數據革命?)
If you just invested a lot of money in a Big Data solution from any of the traditional BI vendors (Teradata, IBM, Oracle, SAS, EMC, HP, etc.) then you are likely to see a sub-optimal ROI in 2013.
一些創新會在2013年,這將改變大數據的價值指數。其他技術創新,只是在等待智能啟動,將其付諸很好地利用。 Several innovations will come in 2013 that will change the value of Big Data exponentially. Other technology innovations are just waiting for smart start-ups to put them into good use.
Real-Time Hadoop 即時 Hadoop
第一次重大創新將是谷歌 Dremel 的類似的解決方案,如 ImpalaDrill的來臨時期,等他們將允許大數據的即時查詢和開源服務。所以,你會得到一個優越的發售相比,什麼是目前免費提供。The first major innovation will be Google’s Dremel-like solutions coming of age like ImpalaDrill, etc. They will allow real-time queries on Big Data and be open source. So you will get a superior offering compared to what is currently available for free.
Cloud-Based Big Data Solutions ( 基於雲計算的大量數據解決方案 )
The absolute market leader is Amazon with EMR. Elastic Map Reduce is not so much about being able to run a Map Reduce operation in the Cloud but about paying for what you use and not more. The traditional BI vendors are still getting their head around a usage-based licensing for the Cloud. Except a lot of smart startups to come up with really innovative Big Data and Cloud solutions.
Big Data Appliances
你可以買一些真正昂貴的大數據設備,但在這裡破壞性的策略之公司都有可能改變市場。 GPU(圖形處理器)也相對便宜。堆棧到侍服器和使用 likeVirtual 的 OpenCL 的東西,使自己的GPU虛擬化集群解決方案。這些類型的自製GPU集群已經被用於安全大數據相關的工作。You can buy some really expensive Big Data Appliances but also here disruptive players are likely to change the market. GPUs are relatively cheap. Stack them into servers and use something likeVirtual OpenCL to make your own GPU virtualization cluster solution. These type of home-made GPU clusters are already being used for security Big Data related work.
同時也希望更多的硬件廠商,移動ARM處理器打包到侍服器裡。戴爾,惠普等已經在推出。想像一下,分佈式的 Map Reduce 的潛力..Also expect more hardware vendors to pack mobile ARM processors into server boxes. DellHP, etc. are already doing it. Imagine the potential for Distributed Map Reduce.
最後 Parallella 把一個16核心的超級計算機到每個人的手中,為99美元。其2013年的超級計算機面臨的挑戰是肯定的東西,保持你的眼睛。他們的產品路線會觸及 64和1000的核心版本。如果Adapteva 公司可以保持他們的承諾,並與Parallella充斥市場的預期Parallella集群,成為2013年大數據設備。Finally Parallella will put a 16-core supercomputer into everybody’s hands for $99. Their 2013 supercomputer challenge is definitely something to keep your eyes on. Their roadmap talks about 64 and 1000 core versions. If Adapteva can keep their promises and flood the market with Parallella’s then expect Parallella Clusters to be 2013 Big Data Appliance.
Distributed Machine Learning
Mahout is a cool project but Map Reduce might not be the best possible architecture to run iterative distributed backpropagation or any other machine learning algorithms. Jubatus looks promising. Also algorithm innovations like HogWild could really change the dynamics for efficient distributed machine learning. This space is definitely ready for more ground-breaking innovations in 2013.
Easier Big Data Tools
這仍然是一個大的白點在開源領域。有開源和易於使用的拖拉工具為大數據分析真的很讓人接收它。我們已經有了一些良好的商業的例子(Radoop= RapidMiner+Mahout,Tableau,Datameer等),但我們仍缺少良好的開源工具。This is still a big white spot in the Open Source field. Having Open Source and easy to use drag-and-drop tools for Big Data Analytics would really excel the adoption. We already have some good commercial examples (Radoop = RapidMiner + MahoutTableauDatameer, etc.) but we are missing good Open Source tools.


Intelligent Applications: The Big Data Theme for 2013 ( 智能應用:2013年巨資料的主題 )

我的預測是2013年的,有競爭力的優勢將轉化為企業使用複雜的巨資料分析的應用 - 創建一個新的品種智能應用程序My prediction for 2013 is that competitive advantage will translate into enterprises using sophisticated Big Data analytic to create a new breed of applications - Intelligent Applications.

“It’s more than just insights from MapReduce”, a CIO from a fortune 100 told me, “It’s about using data to make our customer touch points more engaging, more interactive, more intelligent.”

所以當你聽到關於“巨資料解決方案”,則需要翻譯成一類新的“智能應用”。在一天結束的時候,它不是關於人看透 Peta Byte的資料。它實際上是關於如何將巨資料轉化為收入(或利潤)。So when you hear about “Big Data solutions”, you need to translate that into a new category of “Intelligent Applications”. At the end of the day, it’s not about people pouring through petabytes of data. It’s actually about how one turns the data into revenue (or profits).

Morgan Stanley named the top ten as follows: ( 摩根士認為前十大應用如下:)
  • Healthcare ( 醫療保健 )
  • Entertainment ( 娛樂 )
  • Com/Media ( COM/媒體 )
  • Manufacturing ( 製造業 )
  • Financial ( 金融 )
  • Business Services ( 商業服務 )
  • Transportation ( 運輸 )
  • Web Tech ( 網絡技術 )
  • Distribution ( 行銷分配 )
  • Engineering ( 工程 )
Many have predicted which Industry is the most attractive (see McKinsey’s Quarterly for another). I personally like Ad-Tech and Financial Services for verticals….followed by Information Management , Health (if you can partner to speed up sales cycles), and Communications.

But what about market segments by technology?

我預測,數據分析服務(或簡稱作為作為巨資料服務(BDaaS))將有最高的增長(顯然是建立在它的成熟程度的收入基數較小)。商業智能服務是下一個高速增長的領域,需要更簡單的方法,提出和可視化數據,測井服務。I predict that Data Analytics as a Service (or also referred to as Big Data as a Service (BDaaS)) will have the highest growth (obviously building from a small base in revenue given its level of maturity). Business Intelligence as a Service is the next high-growth segment, given the need for easier ways to present and visualize data, followed by Logging as a Service.

But don’t take my word for this….my data comes from prominent research organizations. I’m just compiling and presenting their data in a slightly new way.

What challenges will end-user organizations struggle with the most in 2013?

End-users will continue to struggle with making sense out of the many technologies available. Is it EMC Greenplum connected to EMC Hadoop? Is it Cloudera Impala + Hadoop? Is it AsterData + Hortonworks? Is it MapR Hbase + HDFS? I think one thing is definite….you have lots of options.

The biggest problem will be whether they are actually satisfying the needs of the business problem. Here are my leading predictions for end-user organizations:

  • End users just want to solve problems, but will continue to fight IT over who owns the platform powering their much-needed data-driven applications
  • Ultimately, end-users will be forced to chase “shinny objects” because IT groups will persuade them to wait for the “technology bake-offs” around the Big Data platform soon to be launched (24 months from now)
  • In the end, many organizations will fail at creating value from Big Data due to a lack of focus on business problems, time-to-market, and in some cases the wrong technology choice
  • What are some of the key technologies that will dominate the Big Data market in 2013?
So many equate Big Data with Hadoop. But as you begin to see with announcements like Impala from Cloudera, it’s more than just Hadoop. It’s about servicing all the application response time requirements. It’s about volume, velocity, and variety but also time-to-value with your data analytic.

My prediction for 2013 is that you will need the following technology components:
  • Real-time stream processing
  • Ad-hoc near real-time analytics (see NoSQL and NewSQL data stores)
  • Batch Analytics
  • Not one, but all three!
What steps can customers take to maximize competitive advantage with Big Data in 2013?

Time to market 競爭優勢的所有。我毫不懷疑,全球2000強公司將在2013年推出自己的巨資料平台。問題是,當他們把這些平台推出,需要多長時間的時候到更多的收入,他們聘請 Accenture,CSC,Capgemini,IBM或想實現他們的巨資料之公司,能推出的智能應用程序嗎?Competitive advantage is ALL about time-to-market. I have no doubt that every Global 2000 company will launch their Big Data initiatives in 2013. The question is when they will turn those initiatives into additional revenue…how long will it take from the time that they hire Accenture, CSC, Capgemini, IBM or the like to implement their Big Data strategies, to launching an intelligent application? 

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